Seminar Details
The research aims to improve the model forecasting skill for the simulation and prediction of NIO TCs through a multi-model approach, and by adopting data assimilation techniques. Structural features, thermodynamic and dynamic characteristics, and microphysical or macro-physical properties need to be studied extensively for the NIO TCs. Therefore, the intended work would be considering WRF-ARW, and MPAS-A models to study the physical, and dynamical characteristic features associated with NIO TCs during pre- and post-monsoon periods of each season starting 2001. Three TC categories, viz., Cyclonic Storm (CS, 34-47 kts), SCS (48-119 kts) that includes both Severe Cyclonic Storm and Very Severe Cyclonic Storms, and Highly Intensified Cyclonic Strom (HICS) with intensity > 90 kts that includes Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm and Super Cyclonic Storm, are considered in the study. Two sets of numerical simulations are conducted for each cyclone, i.e., the CTRL experiment without the data assimilation and the second one, considering the 3DVAR (DA simulation). CTRL simulations are initialized with NCEP-FNL and NOAA Sea surface temperature (SST) data sets, and DA simulation considers modified initial conditions prepared through the 3DVAR technique, where scatterometer winds are assimilated into the WRF model. Both simulations utilized the same set of physical parameterizations. The results show improvement in the case of DA simulations compared to CTRL for several TC classes during the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons, and sectorial analysis ensured through the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) and maximum sustained wind (MSW). RMSE of the wind shear from DA and CTRL simulation is compared to Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA) reanalysis. These results indicate the potential effectiveness of 3DVAR with scatterometer wind data assimilation to improve the predictability of TC-related parameters. The analysis is an ongoing process and it is expected to provide interesting results for the physical and dynamical characteristics of NIO TCs.